Scott M. Huse
The theory of evolution proposes that all of the highly complex structures and systems of the universe are due to the operation of purely natural and haphazard processes of nature. No external supernatural agent (i.e., God) is needed or desired by the proponents of this naturalistic viewpoint. The universe is perceived as being self-contained and self-evolving.
In direct contradiction to this philosophy, Biblical creationism maintains that the innumerable, highly complex systems and intricate structures of the universe offer exceptionally strong evidence of an omniscient Creator. It is the creationist's view that the astounding degree of complexity and order found throughout the universe could never be produced by mere chance but rather represent the handiwork of an Almighty God.
In this chapter we shall consider the likelihood of the chance evolution of life utilizing the basic principles of mathematical probability.
Probability is simply the likelihood of an event occurring. For example, the probability of getting hit by lightning is about 1 in 600,000 (fortunately). The probability of winning a lottery grand prize with a single ticket is about 1 in 5.2 million (unfortunately).
Evolutionists insist that highly complex systems consisting of numerous inter-relating components can arise through purely random and aimless processes. To their way of "thinking," if enough monkeys typed for long enough, eventually one of them would type a perfect unabridged dictionary (Figure 15). Of course, this idea is completely nonsensical, and a brief consideration of probability statistics will reveal the absurdity and na´vetÚ of such a viewpoint.
To illustrate, consider the likelihood of spelling the word "evolution" by randomly selecting nine letters from the alphabet. The probability is 1 chance in (26) A 9 trials (A represents exponentiation). This is equivalent to 1 chance in five trillion, four hundred and twenty-nine billion, five hundred and three million, six hundred and eighty thousand! For such a modest request (accidentally spell a nine letter word) these are rather bleak odds.
Consider a series of 20 cards which are numbered 1 through 20. If these cards are thoroughly shuffled and then laid out successively in a line, the chance of laying them
15: Monkey Business. Evolutionists believe that life originated and
developed through a purely accidental and aimless natural process. The
probability of life arising in such a manner is comparable to the
probability of a monkey typing a perfect unabridged dictionary.
down in numerical order from 1 to 20 is 1 in 2,432,902,008,176,640,000! This huge number is known as 20 factorial (20!) and can be calculated easily by multiplying together all the numbers from 1 to 20.
The probability of accidentally generating Genesis 1:1 - "In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth" - is 1 chance in (26) ^44 trials. This is equivalent to 1 chance in 1.81479392 x(10)^62 trials. In other words, the chance of randomly producing the first verse of the Bible is 1 in 181, 479, 392,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
Obviously, as the number of components increases, the probability of getting the desired result decreases rapidly. For example, let us consider the chance development of a very simple system composed of only 200 integrated parts (simple compared with living systems). The probability of forming such an ordered system is 1 in 200 factorial, or 1 chance in approximately 1,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,0d0,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000, 000,000,000. This colossal number can be written more simply as 10375.Thus, there is only 1 chance out of 10375 of selecting the proper arrangement for a 200-part integrated system on the first trial. But what if we keep on trying different combinations over and over again? Won't we eventually achieve the desired result? Well, to begin with, there are only 10 $o electrons in the universe. Assuming this to be the maximum number of parts available to work with, only 1 X 1080 / 2 X 102 = 5 X 1077 groups of 200 parts each could be formed at any one given time. But we have to form 10375 such groups to be certain of getting the correct one. Assuming that none of the first trial groups work, let us continue trying over and over again at a generous rate of 1 billion (109) trials per second. Furthermore, to give the evolutionists every possible advantage, let us keep on trying for a period of 30 billion years (1018seconds) since this is the presumed age of the universe. But even granting such liberal concessions, we find that the maximum number of trial combinations which could be attempted is still only (5 X 10 77) (109) (1018) = 5 X 10104. This is far too short of the needed 10375 trial combinations required for success. And so, even after all this, the chance that 1 of these 5 X 10104 attempts would yield the desired result of a 200-part system is only 1 out of 1 X 10 375/ 5 X 10104 = 2 X 10170. Simply stated, the chance that a system composed of 200 integrated parts could develop by mere chance is for all practical purposes, non-existent.
And yet a 200-part system is ridiculously primitive compared with living systems. Modern research by NASA has demonstrated that the most basic type of protein molecule that could be classified living is composed of at least 400 linked amino acids. Each amino acid, in turn, is made up of a specific arrangement of four or five chemical elements, and each chemical element is itself a unique combination of protons, neutrons, and electrons! Golay has demonstrated that the chance formation of even the simplest replicating protein molecule is 1 in 10450. Wysong has calculated the probability of forming the proteins and DNA for the smallest self-replicating entity to be 1 in 10167,626, even when granting astronomically generous amounts of time and reagents! Can you imagine what the chance formation of a more complex structure or organ such as the cerebral cortex in the human brain would be? It contains over 10,000,000,000 cells each of which is carefully arranged according to a specific design, and each of which is fantastically complex in itself!
For his defense, the evolutionist might move for a mistrial on the basis of being misunderstood. Rather than suggesting that our 200-part integrated system be suddenly organized all at once, he is proposing that it develops gradually through a step-by-step mutation/natural selection process. Unfortunately for the evolutionist, this argument only serves to make matters worse for his cause. The probability of organizing a 200-part system by this step-by-step process is 1 out of the number represented by the series 2! + 3! + 4! +,..+ 200! (the symbol "!" represents factorial). Obviously, this number is much larger than 200 factorial and the chance of our 200-part system developing by this step-by-step mechanism is far less than its chance of developing all at once which was, for all practical purposes, a zero probability.
Someone has stated that the probability of life arising by mere chance is comparable to the probability of a monkey typing a perfect unabridged dictionary. If we concern ourselves with letters only (disregard punctuation, accent marks, numbers, spaces, capitalization, etc.) we find that we need to accidentally select about 35 million letters in the correct sequence.
Thus, we find that it is mathematically impossible for even the most elementary form of life to have arisen by mere chance. Life is no accident. It is not even something which brilliant scientists can synthesize. The bewildering complexity of even the most basic organic molecules completely rules out the chance of life originating apart from super-intelligent design and planning. The most logical and reasonable conclusion which can be reached based on mathematical analysis is that complex, ordered systems, which so characterize the world in which we live, never happened by mere chance but are the handiwork of our Creator, Almighty God. "Great is our Lord, and of great power: His understanding is infinite." (Psalm 147:5)